North Macedonia U18 1–2 Bulgaria U19

North Macedonia U18

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Bulgaria U19

F. Ilazi 17'

K. Mihaylov 73'

D. Mrankov 61'

2/26/2026

Friendlies · Friendly International

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

North Macedonia U1833%

×Draw28%

Bulgaria U1939%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

North Macedonia U18Expected goals in this matchBulgaria U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.27

North Macedonia U18

1.14

Bulgaria U19

1.27

Bulgaria U19 creates 11% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

1.60

creates per match

1.33

1.20

allows per match

0.67

creates per match

North Macedonia U18

1.60

Bulgaria U19

1.33

allows per match

North Macedonia U18

1.20

Bulgaria U19

0.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

North Macedonia U18+0.00on par

Bulgaria U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

North Macedonia U18 ↓

Bulgaria U19 →

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

North Macedonia U18 or draw

61%

North Macedonia U18 or Bulgaria U19

72%

Draw or Bulgaria U19

67%

Winning margin

North Macedonia U18 wins by 2+

13%

Bulgaria U19 wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

North Macedonia U18 1+ goals

68%

North Macedonia U18 2+ goals

32%

North Macedonia U18 3+ goals

11%

Bulgaria U19 1+ goals

72%

Bulgaria U19 2+ goals

36%

Bulgaria U19 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

North Macedonia U18 (draw refunded)

46%

Bulgaria U19 (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

North Macedonia U18 at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Bulgaria U19 away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

North Macedonia U18 attack 1.60 + Bulgaria U19 defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.14

Bulgaria U19 attack 1.33 + North Macedonia U18 defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 39%?"

North Macedonia U18 scores more

33%

level

28%

Bulgaria U19 scores more

39%

Bulgaria U19 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Bulgaria U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

F. Ilazi

61'

D. Mrankov

73'

K. Mihaylov

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff