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Bulgaria U19 vs North Macedonia U18 — Friendlies 2026

Bulgaria U19
Bulgaria U19
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
North Macedonia U18
North Macedonia U18
V. Mihaylov 35'
R. Stoilov 8' (pen)
2/28/2026FriendliesFriendlies · Friendly International

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Bulgaria U1968%
×Draw22%
North Macedonia U1811%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bulgaria U19
1.80
North Macedonia U18
0.55

Bulgaria U19 creates 227% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Bulgaria U19
1.60
North Macedonia U18
0.50

allows per match

Bulgaria U19
0.60
North Macedonia U18
2.00

finishing

Bulgaria U19+0.00on par
North Macedonia U18+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bulgaria U19 ↓

North Macedonia U18 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–19%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Bulgaria U19 or draw
89%
Bulgaria U19 or North Macedonia U18
78%
Draw or North Macedonia U18
32%

Winning margin

Bulgaria U19 wins by 2+
40%
North Macedonia U18 wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Bulgaria U19 1+ goals
83%
Bulgaria U19 2+ goals
54%
Bulgaria U19 3+ goals
27%
North Macedonia U18 1+ goals
42%
North Macedonia U18 2+ goals
11%
North Macedonia U18 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Bulgaria U19 (draw refunded)
86%
North Macedonia U18 (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bulgaria U19 at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

North Macedonia U18 away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bulgaria U19 attack 1.60 + North Macedonia U18 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.80

North Macedonia U18 attack 0.50 + Bulgaria U19 defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Bulgaria U19 scores more
68%
level
22%
North Macedonia U18 scores more
11%

Bulgaria U19 at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Bulgaria U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
R. StoilovPenalty
35'
V. Mihaylov

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies: Bulgaria U19 2–0 North Macedonia U18

Bulgaria U19 beat North Macedonia U18 2-0 in Friendlies on February 28, 2026.

Goals: R. Stoilov (8' pen), V. Mihaylov (35').