North Korea 2–2 Lebanon: Result & Stats

North Korea

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Lebanon

Lee Yong-Jick 87'

Kim Yu-Song 23'

Hassan Maatouk 90+4'

Nour Mansour 47'

9/5/2017

Asian Cup - Qualification · Group Stage - 3Kim Il Sung Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

North Korea40%

×Draw24%

Lebanon36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

North KoreaExpected goals in this matchLebanon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.50

North Korea

1.58

Lebanon

1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

2.67

creates per match

2.00

1.00

allows per match

0.50

creates per match

North Korea

2.67

Lebanon

2.00

allows per match

North Korea

1.00

Lebanon

0.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

North Korea+0.00on par

Lebanon+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

North Korea ↓

Lebanon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

North Korea or draw

64%

North Korea or Lebanon

76%

Draw or Lebanon

60%

Winning margin

North Korea wins by 2+

20%

Lebanon wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

North Korea 1+ goals

79%

North Korea 2+ goals

47%

North Korea 3+ goals

21%

Lebanon 1+ goals

78%

Lebanon 2+ goals

44%

Lebanon 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

North Korea (draw refunded)

52%

Lebanon (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

North Korea at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Lebanon away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

North Korea attack 2.67 + Lebanon defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.58

Lebanon attack 2.00 + North Korea defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

North Korea scores more

40%

level

24%

Lebanon scores more

36%

North Korea at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "North Korea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

Kim Yu-Song

35'

Ahmad Jalloul← Nader Matar

47'

Nour Mansour

57'

Sim Hyon-Jin← Pak Myong-Song

62'

Kang Kuk-Chol← Ryang Yong-Gi

67'

Kim Chol-Bom← Kang Kuk-Chol

80'

Mohamad Haidar← Hilal El-Helwe

87'

Lee Yong-Jick

88'

Soony Saad← Samir Ayass

90+4'

Hassan Maatouk

North

Lebanon

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: J. Andersen

57'▲Sim Hyon-Jin←▼Pak Myong-Song

62'▲Kang Kuk-Chol←▼Ryang Yong-Gi

67'▲Kim Chol-Bom←▼Kang Kuk-Chol

North Korea substitutes

Hyon-JinKuk-CholChol-BomJong-CholKuk-BomSong-GiIl-GwangKum-IlKwang-IlMyongSinKyong-Jin

Manager: M. Radulović

35'▲Ahmad Jalloul←▼Nader Matar

80'▲Mohamad Haidar←▼Hilal El-Helwe

88'▲Soony Saad←▼Samir Ayass

Lebanon substitutes

JalloulHaidarSaadHassanMalChaitoDinSabraTahaTahhanNassarChaaban