Lebanon 5–0 North Korea: Result & Stats

Lebanon

FT

5 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

North Korea

Rabih Ataya 90+1'

Ali Hamam 78'

Samir Ayass 49'

Hassan Maatouk 25'

Hilal El-Helwe 20'

10/10/2017

Asian Cup - Qualification · Group Stage - 4Camille Chamoun Sports City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Lebanon68%

×Draw17%

North Korea15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LebanonExpected goals in this matchNorth Korea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.56

1.14

Lebanon

2.56

North Korea

1.14

Lebanon creates 125% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

2.80

creates per match

1.67

0.60

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Lebanon

2.80

North Korea

1.67

allows per match

Lebanon

0.60

North Korea

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lebanon+0.00on par

North Korea+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lebanon ↓

North Korea →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–17%

1–24%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Lebanon or draw

85%

Lebanon or North Korea

83%

Draw or North Korea

32%

Winning margin

Lebanon wins by 2+

46%

North Korea wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Lebanon 1+ goals

92%

Lebanon 2+ goals

72%

Lebanon 3+ goals

46%

North Korea 1+ goals

68%

North Korea 2+ goals

32%

North Korea 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Lebanon (draw refunded)

82%

North Korea (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lebanon at home — creates 2.80, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

North Korea away — creates 1.67, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lebanon attack 2.80 + North Korea defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.56

North Korea attack 1.67 + Lebanon defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Lebanon scores more

68%

level

17%

North Korea scores more

15%

Lebanon at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Lebanon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

Hilal El-Helwe

25'

Hassan Maatouk

39'

Pak Kwang-Ryong← Sim Hyon-Jin

49'

Samir Ayass

70'

Lee Yong-Jick← Pak Song-Chol

78'

Mohamad Haidar← Hassan Maatouk

78'

Ali Hamam

83'

Ahmad Jalloul← Samir Ayass

84'

Kim Song-Gi← Kang Kuk-Chol

89'

Nassar Nassar← Ali Hamam

90+1'

Rabih Ataya

Lebanon

North

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Maatouk

Faour

⚽

▼

Ayass

⚽

Ataya

⚽

El-Helwe

Manager: M. Radulović

78'▲Mohamad Haidar←▼Hassan Maatouk

83'▲Ahmad Jalloul←▼Samir Ayass

89'▲Nassar Nassar←▼Ali Hamam

Lebanon substitutes

HaidarJalloulNassarHassanHaninehChaitoDinTahaTahhanSaadHaidar

Manager: J. Andersen

39'▲Pak Kwang-Ryong←▼Sim Hyon-Jin

70'▲Lee Yong-Jick←▼Pak Song-Chol

84'▲Kim Song-Gi←▼Kang Kuk-Chol

North Korea substitutes

Kwang-RyongYong-JickSong-GiByong-JunMyongJu-SongKwang-SongSinJong-CholKwang-IlKum-IlKyong-Jin

Asian Cup - Qualification: Lebanon 5–0 North Korea

Lebanon beat North Korea 5-0 in Asian Cup - Qualification on October 10, 2017.

Goals: Hilal El-Helwe (20'), Hassan Maatouk (25'), Samir Ayass (49'), Ali Hamam (78'), Rabih Ataya (90+1').

The match was played at Camille Chamoun Sports City Stadium in Beirut.

Lebanon vs North Korea — Asian Cup - Qualification 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Asian Cup - Qualification: Lebanon 5–0 North Korea