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North Geelong Warriors vs Moreland Zebras — Victoria NPL 2 2021

North Geelong Warriors
North Geelong Warriors
FT
1 – 2
Moreland Zebras
Moreland Zebras
6/26/2021Victoria NPL 2Victoria NPL 2 · Round 13Elcho Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

North Geelong Warriors40%
×Draw24%
Moreland Zebras37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

North Geelong Warriors
1.63
Moreland Zebras
1.55

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 41 home / 32 away

creates per match

North Geelong Warriors
1.85
Moreland Zebras
1.44

allows per match

North Geelong Warriors
1.66
Moreland Zebras
1.41

finishing

North Geelong Warriors+0.00on par
Moreland Zebras+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

North Geelong Warriors ↓

Moreland Zebras →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

North Geelong Warriors or draw
63%
North Geelong Warriors or Moreland Zebras
76%
Draw or Moreland Zebras
60%

Winning margin

North Geelong Warriors wins by 2+
20%
Moreland Zebras wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

North Geelong Warriors 1+ goals
80%
North Geelong Warriors 2+ goals
48%
North Geelong Warriors 3+ goals
22%
Moreland Zebras 1+ goals
79%
Moreland Zebras 2+ goals
46%
Moreland Zebras 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

North Geelong Warriors (draw refunded)
52%
Moreland Zebras (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

North Geelong Warriors at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.66 · 41 matches

Moreland Zebras away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.41 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

North Geelong Warriors attack 1.85 + Moreland Zebras defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.63

Moreland Zebras attack 1.44 + North Geelong Warriors defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

North Geelong Warriors scores more
40%
level
24%
Moreland Zebras scores more
37%

North Geelong Warriors at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "North Geelong Warriors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: North Geelong Warriors vs Moreland Zebras

Moreland Zebras beat North Geelong Warriors 2-1 in Victoria NPL 2 on June 26, 2021.

The match was played at Elcho Park in Lara.