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Moreland Zebras vs North Geelong Warriors — Victoria NPL 2 2021

Moreland Zebras
Moreland Zebras
FT
0 – 0
North Geelong Warriors
North Geelong Warriors
3/27/2021Victoria NPL 2Victoria NPL 2 · Round 2CB Smith Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Moreland Zebras46%
×Draw23%
North Geelong Warriors31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moreland Zebras
1.79
North Geelong Warriors
1.44

Moreland Zebras creates 24% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 40 away

creates per match

Moreland Zebras
1.69
North Geelong Warriors
1.60

allows per match

Moreland Zebras
1.28
North Geelong Warriors
1.90

finishing

Moreland Zebras+0.00on par
North Geelong Warriors+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moreland Zebras ↓

North Geelong Warriors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Moreland Zebras or draw
69%
Moreland Zebras or North Geelong Warriors
77%
Draw or North Geelong Warriors
54%

Winning margin

Moreland Zebras wins by 2+
25%
North Geelong Warriors wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Moreland Zebras 1+ goals
83%
Moreland Zebras 2+ goals
53%
Moreland Zebras 3+ goals
26%
North Geelong Warriors 1+ goals
76%
North Geelong Warriors 2+ goals
42%
North Geelong Warriors 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Moreland Zebras (draw refunded)
60%
North Geelong Warriors (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moreland Zebras at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.28 · 29 matches

North Geelong Warriors away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.90 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moreland Zebras attack 1.69 + North Geelong Warriors defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.79

North Geelong Warriors attack 1.60 + Moreland Zebras defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Moreland Zebras scores more
46%
level
23%
North Geelong Warriors scores more
31%

Moreland Zebras at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Moreland Zebras will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Victoria NPL 2: Moreland Zebras 0–0 North Geelong Warriors

Moreland Zebras and North Geelong Warriors drew 0-0 in Victoria NPL 2 on March 27, 2021.

The match was played at CB Smith Reserve in Fawkner.