North Geelong Warriors 1–0 Langwarrin

North Geelong Warriors

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Langwarrin

6/1/2024

Victoria NPL 2 · Round 16Elcho Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

North Geelong Warriors45%

×Draw23%

Langwarrin32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

North Geelong WarriorsExpected goals in this matchLangwarrin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.54

North Geelong Warriors

1.85

Langwarrin

1.54

North Geelong Warriors creates 20% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 67 away

1.85

creates per match

1.42

1.66

allows per match

1.84

creates per match

North Geelong Warriors

1.85

Langwarrin

1.42

allows per match

North Geelong Warriors

1.66

Langwarrin

1.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

North Geelong Warriors+0.00on par

Langwarrin+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

North Geelong Warriors ↓

Langwarrin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

North Geelong Warriors or draw

68%

North Geelong Warriors or Langwarrin

77%

Draw or Langwarrin

55%

Winning margin

North Geelong Warriors wins by 2+

25%

Langwarrin wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

North Geelong Warriors 1+ goals

84%

North Geelong Warriors 2+ goals

55%

North Geelong Warriors 3+ goals

28%

Langwarrin 1+ goals

79%

Langwarrin 2+ goals

45%

Langwarrin 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

North Geelong Warriors (draw refunded)

58%

Langwarrin (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

North Geelong Warriors at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.66 · 41 matches

Langwarrin away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.84 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

North Geelong Warriors attack 1.85 + Langwarrin defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.85

Langwarrin attack 1.42 + North Geelong Warriors defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

North Geelong Warriors scores more

45%

level

23%

Langwarrin scores more

32%

North Geelong Warriors at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "North Geelong Warriors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff