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Langwarrin vs North Geelong Warriors — Victoria NPL 2 2026

Langwarrin
Langwarrin
FT
2 – 1
North Geelong Warriors
North Geelong Warriors
2/24/2024Victoria NPL 2Victoria NPL 2 · Round 3Lawton Park Reserve - Pitch 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Langwarrin40%
×Draw22%
North Geelong Warriors38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Langwarrin
1.86
North Geelong Warriors
1.80

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 40 away

creates per match

Langwarrin
1.82
North Geelong Warriors
1.60

allows per match

Langwarrin
2.01
North Geelong Warriors
1.90

finishing

Langwarrin+0.00on par
North Geelong Warriors+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Langwarrin ↓

North Geelong Warriors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Langwarrin or draw
62%
Langwarrin or North Geelong Warriors
78%
Draw or North Geelong Warriors
60%

Winning margin

Langwarrin wins by 2+
21%
North Geelong Warriors wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Langwarrin 1+ goals
84%
Langwarrin 2+ goals
55%
Langwarrin 3+ goals
28%
North Geelong Warriors 1+ goals
83%
North Geelong Warriors 2+ goals
54%
North Geelong Warriors 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Langwarrin (draw refunded)
52%
North Geelong Warriors (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Langwarrin at home — creates 1.82, concedes 2.01 · 68 matches

North Geelong Warriors away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.90 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Langwarrin attack 1.82 + North Geelong Warriors defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.86

North Geelong Warriors attack 1.60 + Langwarrin defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Langwarrin scores more
40%
level
22%
North Geelong Warriors scores more
38%

Langwarrin at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Langwarrin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Langwarrin vs North Geelong Warriors

Langwarrin beat North Geelong Warriors 2-1 in Victoria NPL 2 on February 24, 2024.

The match was played at Lawton Park Reserve - Pitch 1 in Langwarrin South.