North Geelong Warriors vs Green Gully — Victoria NPL 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 13+ matches
North Geelong Warriors19%
Green Gully60%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Green Gully creates 94% more chances
Season form · 13 home / 87 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over58
- Under42
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes56
- No44
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
North Geelong Warriors ↓
Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
North Geelong Warriors at home — creates 0.54, concedes 2.69 · 13 matches
Green Gully away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.52 · 87 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
North Geelong Warriors attack 0.54 + Green Gully defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.03
Green Gully attack 1.32 + North Geelong Warriors defence 2.69 → ÷2 → 2.00
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 60%?"
Green Gully at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 60% does not mean "Green Gully will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Heidelberg United
AvondaleGreen Gully
Bentleigh Greens
Oakleigh Cannons
Hume City
South Melbourne
Dandenong City
Port Melbourne
Melbourne Knights
Altona Magic
Dandenong Thunder
Kingston City
Pascoe ValeIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
North Geelong Warriors host Green Gully on Saturday, 1 April 2023 at 04:00. The match is part of the Victoria NPL 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: North Geelong Warriors vs Green Gully
Green Gully beat North Geelong Warriors 7-0 in Victoria NPL on April 1, 2023.
The match was played at Elcho Park in Lara.