Green Gully 3–1 North Geelong Warriors

Green Gully

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

North Geelong Warriors

6/30/2023

Victoria NPL · Round 20Green Gully Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Green Gully59%

×Draw20%

North Geelong Warriors21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Green GullyExpected goals in this matchNorth Geelong Warriors

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.26

1.27

Green Gully

2.26

North Geelong Warriors

1.27

Green Gully creates 78% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 13 away

1.75

creates per match

0.85

1.70

allows per match

2.77

creates per match

Green Gully

1.75

North Geelong Warriors

0.85

allows per match

Green Gully

1.70

North Geelong Warriors

2.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Green Gully+0.00on par

North Geelong Warriors+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Green Gully ↓

North Geelong Warriors →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Green Gully or draw

79%

Green Gully or North Geelong Warriors

80%

Draw or North Geelong Warriors

41%

Winning margin

Green Gully wins by 2+

37%

North Geelong Warriors wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Green Gully 1+ goals

89%

Green Gully 2+ goals

66%

Green Gully 3+ goals

39%

North Geelong Warriors 1+ goals

72%

North Geelong Warriors 2+ goals

36%

North Geelong Warriors 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Green Gully (draw refunded)

74%

North Geelong Warriors (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Green Gully at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.70 · 88 matches

North Geelong Warriors away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.77 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Green Gully attack 1.75 + North Geelong Warriors defence 2.77 → ÷2 → 2.26

North Geelong Warriors attack 0.85 + Green Gully defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Green Gully scores more

59%

level

20%

North Geelong Warriors scores more

21%

Green Gully at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Green Gully will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff