North Geelong Warriors 1–2 Dandenong Thunder

North Geelong Warriors

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Dandenong Thunder

4/15/2023

Victoria NPL · Round 9Elcho Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

North Geelong Warriors21%

×Draw21%

Dandenong Thunder57%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

North Geelong WarriorsExpected goals in this matchDandenong Thunder

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

2.07

North Geelong Warriors

1.19

Dandenong Thunder

2.07

Dandenong Thunder creates 74% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 86 away

0.54

creates per match

1.45

2.69

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

North Geelong Warriors

0.54

Dandenong Thunder

1.45

allows per match

North Geelong Warriors

2.69

Dandenong Thunder

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

North Geelong Warriors+0.00on par

Dandenong Thunder+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

North Geelong Warriors ↓

Dandenong Thunder →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–28%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

North Geelong Warriors or draw

43%

North Geelong Warriors or Dandenong Thunder

79%

Draw or Dandenong Thunder

79%

Winning margin

North Geelong Warriors wins by 2+

8%

Dandenong Thunder wins by 2+

35%

Team goals

North Geelong Warriors 1+ goals

70%

North Geelong Warriors 2+ goals

33%

North Geelong Warriors 3+ goals

12%

Dandenong Thunder 1+ goals

87%

Dandenong Thunder 2+ goals

61%

Dandenong Thunder 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

North Geelong Warriors (draw refunded)

27%

Dandenong Thunder (draw refunded)

73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

North Geelong Warriors at home — creates 0.54, concedes 2.69 · 13 matches

Dandenong Thunder away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.83 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

North Geelong Warriors attack 0.54 + Dandenong Thunder defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.19

Dandenong Thunder attack 1.45 + North Geelong Warriors defence 2.69 → ÷2 → 2.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

North Geelong Warriors scores more

21%

level

21%

Dandenong Thunder scores more

57%

Dandenong Thunder at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Dandenong Thunder will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff