Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Dandenong Thunder vs North Geelong Warriors — Victoria NPL 2026

Dandenong Thunder
Dandenong Thunder
FT
6 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
North Geelong Warriors
North Geelong Warriors
7/15/2023Victoria NPLVictoria NPL · Round 22George Andrews Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Dandenong Thunder59%
×Draw20%
North Geelong Warriors21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dandenong Thunder
2.27
North Geelong Warriors
1.29

Dandenong Thunder creates 76% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 13 away

creates per match

Dandenong Thunder
1.76
North Geelong Warriors
0.85

allows per match

Dandenong Thunder
1.74
North Geelong Warriors
2.77

finishing

Dandenong Thunder+0.00on par
North Geelong Warriors+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dandenong Thunder ↓

North Geelong Warriors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Dandenong Thunder or draw
79%
Dandenong Thunder or North Geelong Warriors
80%
Draw or North Geelong Warriors
41%

Winning margin

Dandenong Thunder wins by 2+
37%
North Geelong Warriors wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Dandenong Thunder 1+ goals
90%
Dandenong Thunder 2+ goals
66%
Dandenong Thunder 3+ goals
39%
North Geelong Warriors 1+ goals
72%
North Geelong Warriors 2+ goals
37%
North Geelong Warriors 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Dandenong Thunder (draw refunded)
74%
North Geelong Warriors (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dandenong Thunder at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.74 · 88 matches

North Geelong Warriors away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.77 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dandenong Thunder attack 1.76 + North Geelong Warriors defence 2.77 → ÷2 → 2.27

North Geelong Warriors attack 0.85 + Dandenong Thunder defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Dandenong Thunder scores more
59%
level
20%
North Geelong Warriors scores more
21%

Dandenong Thunder at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Dandenong Thunder will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dandenong Thunder vs North Geelong Warriors

Dandenong Thunder beat North Geelong Warriors 6-0 in Victoria NPL on July 15, 2023.

The match was played at George Andrews Reserve in Melbourne.