North Geelong Warriors 2–3 Bentleigh Greens

North Geelong Warriors

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 0

Bentleigh Greens

7/13/2024

Victoria NPL 2 · Round 22Elcho Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

North Geelong Warriors40%

×Draw24%

Bentleigh Greens36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

North Geelong WarriorsExpected goals in this matchBentleigh Greens

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.54

North Geelong Warriors

1.64

Bentleigh Greens

1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 41 home / 26 away

1.85

creates per match

1.42

1.66

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

North Geelong Warriors

1.85

Bentleigh Greens

1.42

allows per match

North Geelong Warriors

1.66

Bentleigh Greens

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

North Geelong Warriors+0.00on par

Bentleigh Greens+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

North Geelong Warriors ↓

Bentleigh Greens →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

North Geelong Warriors or draw

64%

North Geelong Warriors or Bentleigh Greens

76%

Draw or Bentleigh Greens

60%

Winning margin

North Geelong Warriors wins by 2+

20%

Bentleigh Greens wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

North Geelong Warriors 1+ goals

81%

North Geelong Warriors 2+ goals

49%

North Geelong Warriors 3+ goals

23%

Bentleigh Greens 1+ goals

79%

Bentleigh Greens 2+ goals

45%

Bentleigh Greens 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

North Geelong Warriors (draw refunded)

53%

Bentleigh Greens (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

North Geelong Warriors at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.66 · 41 matches

Bentleigh Greens away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.42 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

North Geelong Warriors attack 1.85 + Bentleigh Greens defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.64

Bentleigh Greens attack 1.42 + North Geelong Warriors defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

North Geelong Warriors scores more

40%

level

24%

Bentleigh Greens scores more

36%

North Geelong Warriors at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "North Geelong Warriors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff