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Bentleigh Greens vs North Geelong Warriors — Victoria NPL 2 2021

Bentleigh Greens
Bentleigh Greens
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
North Geelong Warriors
North Geelong Warriors
4/13/2024Victoria NPL 2Victoria NPL 2 · Round 9Kingston Heath Soccer Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Bentleigh Greens51%
×Draw22%
North Geelong Warriors27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bentleigh Greens
1.91
North Geelong Warriors
1.34

Bentleigh Greens creates 43% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 40 away

creates per match

Bentleigh Greens
1.92
North Geelong Warriors
1.60

allows per match

Bentleigh Greens
1.08
North Geelong Warriors
1.90

finishing

Bentleigh Greens+0.00on par
North Geelong Warriors+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bentleigh Greens ↓

North Geelong Warriors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Bentleigh Greens or draw
73%
Bentleigh Greens or North Geelong Warriors
78%
Draw or North Geelong Warriors
49%

Winning margin

Bentleigh Greens wins by 2+
29%
North Geelong Warriors wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Bentleigh Greens 1+ goals
85%
Bentleigh Greens 2+ goals
57%
Bentleigh Greens 3+ goals
30%
North Geelong Warriors 1+ goals
74%
North Geelong Warriors 2+ goals
39%
North Geelong Warriors 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Bentleigh Greens (draw refunded)
65%
North Geelong Warriors (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bentleigh Greens at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.08 · 26 matches

North Geelong Warriors away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.90 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bentleigh Greens attack 1.92 + North Geelong Warriors defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.91

North Geelong Warriors attack 1.60 + Bentleigh Greens defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Bentleigh Greens scores more
51%
level
22%
North Geelong Warriors scores more
27%

Bentleigh Greens at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Bentleigh Greens will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bentleigh Greens vs North Geelong Warriors

Bentleigh Greens beat North Geelong Warriors 3-0 in Victoria NPL 2 on April 13, 2024.

The match was played at Kingston Heath Soccer Complex in Melbourne.