North Esporte 2–2 Democrata SL: Result & Stats

North Esporte

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Democrata SL

Rodrigo Fumaca 39'

Marcus Vinicius 13'

Fabricio 38' (pen)

Pablinho 6'

5/24/2025

Mineiro - 2 · Round 5Estádio José Maria de Melo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

North Esporte43%

×Draw29%

Democrata SL27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

North EsporteExpected goals in this matchDemocrata SL

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

0.89

North Esporte

1.21

Democrata SL

0.89

North Esporte creates 36% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 40 away

1.45

creates per match

0.97

0.80

allows per match

0.97

creates per match

North Esporte

1.45

Democrata SL

0.97

allows per match

North Esporte

0.80

Democrata SL

0.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

North Esporte+0.00on par

Democrata SL+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

North Esporte ↓

Democrata SL →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

North Esporte or draw

73%

North Esporte or Democrata SL

71%

Draw or Democrata SL

57%

Winning margin

North Esporte wins by 2+

19%

Democrata SL wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

North Esporte 1+ goals

70%

North Esporte 2+ goals

34%

North Esporte 3+ goals

12%

Democrata SL 1+ goals

59%

Democrata SL 2+ goals

22%

Democrata SL 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

North Esporte (draw refunded)

62%

Democrata SL (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

North Esporte at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.80 · 20 matches

Democrata SL away — creates 0.97, concedes 0.97 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

North Esporte attack 1.45 + Democrata SL defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.21

Democrata SL attack 0.97 + North Esporte defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

North Esporte scores more

43%

level

29%

Democrata SL scores more

27%

North Esporte at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "North Esporte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

Pablinho

13'

Marcus Vinicius

38'

FabricioPenalty

39'

Rodrigo Fumaca

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff