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Democrata SL vs North Esporte — Mineiro - 2 2026

Democrata SL
Democrata SL
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
North Esporte
North Esporte
Lucao 77'
Unknown 22'
5/31/2025Mineiro - 2Mineiro - 2 · Round 7Arena do Jacaré

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Democrata SL44%
×Draw32%
North Esporte24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Democrata SL
1.08
North Esporte
0.71

Democrata SL creates 52% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 21 away

creates per match

Democrata SL
1.27
North Esporte
0.76

allows per match

Democrata SL
0.65
North Esporte
0.90

finishing

Democrata SL+0.00on par
North Esporte+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 73Over: 2773%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 66Yes: 3466%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Democrata SL ↓

North Esporte →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–112%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Democrata SL or draw
76%
Democrata SL or North Esporte
68%
Draw or North Esporte
56%

Winning margin

Democrata SL wins by 2+
18%
North Esporte wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Democrata SL 1+ goals
66%
Democrata SL 2+ goals
29%
Democrata SL 3+ goals
10%
North Esporte 1+ goals
51%
North Esporte 2+ goals
16%
North Esporte 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Democrata SL (draw refunded)
65%
North Esporte (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Democrata SL at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.65 · 37 matches

North Esporte away — creates 0.76, concedes 0.90 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Democrata SL attack 1.27 + North Esporte defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.08

North Esporte attack 0.76 + Democrata SL defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Democrata SL scores more
44%
level
32%
North Esporte scores more
24%

Democrata SL at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Democrata SL will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'
70'
77'
Lucao

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mineiro - 2: Democrata SL 1–1 North Esporte

Democrata SL and North Esporte drew 1-1 in Mineiro - 2 on May 31, 2025.

Goals: ? (22'), Lucao (77').

The match was played at Arena do Jacaré in Sete Lagoas, Minas Gerais.