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North Carolina Courage W vs Utah Royals W — NWSL Women 2026

North Carolina Courage W
North Carolina Courage W
Preview
23:45
Utah Royals W
Utah Royals W
7/25/2026NWSL WomenNWSL Women · Group StageWakeMed Soccer Park
Big match
52%
North Carolina Courage W
model favours
52%24%24%
1–1
likely score
51%
over 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

North Carolina Courage W52%
×Draw24%
Utah Royals W24%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

North Carolina Courage W
1.66
Utah Royals W
1.05

North Carolina Courage W creates 58% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 47 away

creates per match

North Carolina Courage W
1.78
Utah Royals W
1.04

allows per match

North Carolina Courage W
1.06
Utah Royals W
1.53

finishing

North Carolina Courage W+0.00on par
Utah Royals W+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

North Carolina Courage W ↓

Utah Royals W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

North Carolina Courage W or draw
76%
North Carolina Courage W or Utah Royals W
76%
Draw or Utah Royals W
48%

Winning margin

North Carolina Courage W wins by 2+
28%
Utah Royals W wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

North Carolina Courage W 1+ goals
81%
North Carolina Courage W 2+ goals
49%
North Carolina Courage W 3+ goals
23%
Utah Royals W 1+ goals
65%
Utah Royals W 2+ goals
28%
Utah Royals W 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

North Carolina Courage W (draw refunded)
68%
Utah Royals W (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

North Carolina Courage W at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.06 · 81 matches

Utah Royals W away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.53 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

North Carolina Courage W attack 1.78 + Utah Royals W defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.66

Utah Royals W attack 1.04 + North Carolina Courage W defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

North Carolina Courage W scores more
52%
level
24%
Utah Royals W scores more
24%

North Carolina Courage W at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "North Carolina Courage W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Utah Royals W fall short of their xG (1.0 vs 1.6 expected)
  • North Carolina Courage W fall short of their xG (1.2 vs 1.7 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
North Carolina Courage W
Possession-dominant
Utah Royals W
Balanced
56%PossessionBiggest gap49%
82%Pass accuracy76%
10.8Shots10.1
1.67xG1.59
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
North Carolina Courage WUtah Royals W

Head-to-head

7 previous meetings

4
North Carolina Courage W
2
Draws
1
Utah Royals W
Avg goals: 2.3BTTS: 57%
1–12–01–01–23–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
W
LLWWW
W
WLLDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: North Carolina Courage W host Utah Royals W

July 25, 2026: North Carolina Courage W take on Utah Royals W in NWSL Women. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

North Carolina Courage W host Utah Royals W at WakeMed Soccer Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.