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North Carolina Courage W vs Kansas City W — NWSL Women 2026

North Carolina Courage W
North Carolina Courage W
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Kansas City W
Kansas City W
5/2/2026NWSL WomenNWSL Women · Group StageWakeMed Soccer Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

North Carolina Courage W48%
×Draw25%
Kansas City W27%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

North Carolina Courage W
1.61
Kansas City W
1.13

North Carolina Courage W creates 42% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 72 away

creates per match

North Carolina Courage W
1.82
Kansas City W
1.19

allows per match

North Carolina Courage W
1.06
Kansas City W
1.40

finishing

North Carolina Courage W+0.00on par
Kansas City W+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

North Carolina Courage W ↓

Kansas City W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

North Carolina Courage W or draw
73%
North Carolina Courage W or Kansas City W
75%
Draw or Kansas City W
52%

Winning margin

North Carolina Courage W wins by 2+
25%
Kansas City W wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

North Carolina Courage W 1+ goals
80%
North Carolina Courage W 2+ goals
48%
North Carolina Courage W 3+ goals
22%
Kansas City W 1+ goals
68%
Kansas City W 2+ goals
31%
Kansas City W 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

North Carolina Courage W (draw refunded)
64%
Kansas City W (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

North Carolina Courage W at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.06 · 83 matches

Kansas City W away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.40 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

North Carolina Courage W attack 1.82 + Kansas City W defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.61

Kansas City W attack 1.19 + North Carolina Courage W defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

North Carolina Courage W scores more
48%
level
25%
Kansas City W scores more
27%

North Carolina Courage W at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "North Carolina Courage W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: North Carolina Courage W vs Kansas City W

Kansas City W beat North Carolina Courage W 2-1 in NWSL Women on May 2, 2026.

The match was played at WakeMed Soccer Park in Cary.