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Kansas City W vs North Carolina Courage W — NWSL Women 2026

Kansas City W
Kansas City W
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
North Carolina Courage W
North Carolina Courage W
8/30/2025NWSL WomenNWSL Women · Round 18CPKC Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Kansas City W47%
×Draw25%
North Carolina Courage W29%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kansas City W
1.60
North Carolina Courage W
1.20

Kansas City W creates 33% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 82 away

creates per match

Kansas City W
1.82
North Carolina Courage W
1.33

allows per match

Kansas City W
1.06
North Carolina Courage W
1.37

finishing

Kansas City W+0.00on par
North Carolina Courage W+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kansas City W ↓

North Carolina Courage W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Kansas City W or draw
71%
Kansas City W or North Carolina Courage W
75%
Draw or North Carolina Courage W
53%

Winning margin

Kansas City W wins by 2+
24%
North Carolina Courage W wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Kansas City W 1+ goals
80%
Kansas City W 2+ goals
47%
Kansas City W 3+ goals
22%
North Carolina Courage W 1+ goals
70%
North Carolina Courage W 2+ goals
34%
North Carolina Courage W 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Kansas City W (draw refunded)
62%
North Carolina Courage W (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kansas City W at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.06 · 68 matches

North Carolina Courage W away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.37 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kansas City W attack 1.82 + North Carolina Courage W defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.60

North Carolina Courage W attack 1.33 + Kansas City W defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Kansas City W scores more
47%
level
25%
North Carolina Courage W scores more
29%

Kansas City W at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Kansas City W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kansas City W vs North Carolina Courage W

Kansas City W beat North Carolina Courage W 2-0 in NWSL Women on August 30, 2025.

The match was played at CPKC Stadium in Kansas City.