North Carolina Courage W 1–3 Bay FC W

North Carolina Courage W

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 3

Bay FC W

M. Matsukubo 65'

D. Bailey 34'

K. Barry 30'

A. Pfeiffer 20'

3/28/2026

NWSL Women · Group StageWakeMed Soccer Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

North Carolina Courage W46%

×Draw25%

Bay FC W29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

North Carolina Courage WExpected goals in this matchBay FC W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.21

North Carolina Courage W

1.58

Bay FC W

1.21

North Carolina Courage W creates 31% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 29 away

1.48

creates per match

1.17

1.26

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

North Carolina Courage W

1.48

Bay FC W

1.17

allows per match

North Carolina Courage W

1.26

Bay FC W

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

North Carolina Courage W+0.00on par

Bay FC W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

North Carolina Courage W ↓

Bay FC W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

North Carolina Courage W or draw

71%

North Carolina Courage W or Bay FC W

75%

Draw or Bay FC W

54%

Winning margin

North Carolina Courage W wins by 2+

23%

Bay FC W wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

North Carolina Courage W 1+ goals

79%

North Carolina Courage W 2+ goals

47%

North Carolina Courage W 3+ goals

21%

Bay FC W 1+ goals

70%

Bay FC W 2+ goals

34%

Bay FC W 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

North Carolina Courage W (draw refunded)

61%

Bay FC W (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

North Carolina Courage W at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.26 · 23 matches

Bay FC W away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.69 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

North Carolina Courage W attack 1.48 + Bay FC W defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.58

Bay FC W attack 1.17 + North Carolina Courage W defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

North Carolina Courage W scores more

46%

level

25%

Bay FC W scores more

29%

North Carolina Courage W at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "North Carolina Courage W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

R. Williams

North Carolina Courage W · M

8.3

Match Events

10'

B. Courtnall← J. Anderson

20'

A. Pfeiffer↳ S. Collins

25'

Ryan WilliamsPenalty cancelled

30'

K. Barry↳ C. Girelli

34'

D. Bailey↳ A. Pfeiffer

41'

Keira Barry

41'

M. Matsukubo← S. Schmidt

45+9'

Evelyn Ijeh

56'

H. Betfort← E. Ijeh

56'

A. Schlegel← C. Wickenheiser

56'

O. Gamero← K. Barry

56'

K. Lema← A. Pfeiffer

65'

M. Matsukubo↳ R. Williams

76'

Karlie Lema

79'

T. Boade← D. Bailey

79'

M. Moreau← A. Denton

89'

F. Rauch← U. Shiragaki

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NorthBay

Overview

51%Possession49%

13Total Shots14

1.53Expected Goals (xG)1.90

4Corners4

12Fouls11

Shots

13Total Shots14

2On Target7

7Off Target4

4Blocked3

10Inside Box13

3Outside Box1

Passing

51%Possession49%

444Total Passes429

363Accurate Passes342

82%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls11

1Yellow Cards2

3Offsides1