North Carolina Courage W 1–1 Bay FC W

North Carolina Courage W

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Bay FC W

A. Sanchez 28'

A. Oshoala 9'

9/13/2024

NWSL Women · Round 15WakeMed Soccer Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

North Carolina Courage W46%

×Draw25%

Bay FC W29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

North Carolina Courage WExpected goals in this matchBay FC W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.21

North Carolina Courage W

1.58

Bay FC W

1.21

North Carolina Courage W creates 31% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 29 away

1.48

creates per match

1.17

1.26

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

North Carolina Courage W

1.48

Bay FC W

1.17

allows per match

North Carolina Courage W

1.26

Bay FC W

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

North Carolina Courage W+0.00on par

Bay FC W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

North Carolina Courage W ↓

Bay FC W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

North Carolina Courage W or draw

71%

North Carolina Courage W or Bay FC W

75%

Draw or Bay FC W

54%

Winning margin

North Carolina Courage W wins by 2+

23%

Bay FC W wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

North Carolina Courage W 1+ goals

79%

North Carolina Courage W 2+ goals

47%

North Carolina Courage W 3+ goals

21%

Bay FC W 1+ goals

70%

Bay FC W 2+ goals

34%

Bay FC W 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

North Carolina Courage W (draw refunded)

61%

Bay FC W (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

North Carolina Courage W at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.26 · 23 matches

Bay FC W away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.69 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

North Carolina Courage W attack 1.48 + Bay FC W defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.58

Bay FC W attack 1.17 + North Carolina Courage W defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

North Carolina Courage W scores more

46%

level

25%

Bay FC W scores more

29%

North Carolina Courage W at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "North Carolina Courage W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

A. Sanchez

North Carolina Courage W · M

7.9

Match Events

9'

A. Oshoala↳ T. Boade

14'

Denise O'Sullivan

28'

A. Sanchez↳ D. O'Sullivan

56'

O. Wingate← B. St-Georges

56'

B. Pinto← T. Lussi

56'

P. Hocking← R. Hill

72'

M. Speck← H. Hopkins

72'

D. Weatherholt← N. Miura

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NorthBay

Overview

59%Possession41%

7Total Shots12

4Corners5

4Fouls7

Shots

7Total Shots12

2On Target6

5Off Target3

0Blocked3

5Inside Box11

2Outside Box1

Passing

59%Possession41%

527Total Passes355

443Accurate Passes282

84%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

5Saves1

Discipline

4Fouls7

1Yellow Cards0

4Offsides3