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North Carolina Courage W vs Angel City W — NWSL Women 2026

North Carolina Courage W
North Carolina Courage W
Preview
00:00
Angel City W
Angel City W
8/27/2026NWSL WomenNWSL Women · Group StageWakeMed Soccer Park
Big match
49%
North Carolina Courage W
model favours
49%25%26%

North Carolina Courage W win just 30% against the top half (vs 57% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
over 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

North Carolina Courage W49%
×Draw25%
Angel City W26%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

North Carolina Courage W
1.62
Angel City W
1.10

North Carolina Courage W creates 47% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 55 away

creates per match

North Carolina Courage W
1.82
Angel City W
1.15

allows per match

North Carolina Courage W
1.06
Angel City W
1.42

finishing

North Carolina Courage W+0.00on par
Angel City W+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

North Carolina Courage W ↓

Angel City W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

North Carolina Courage W or draw
74%
North Carolina Courage W or Angel City W
75%
Draw or Angel City W
51%

Winning margin

North Carolina Courage W wins by 2+
26%
Angel City W wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

North Carolina Courage W 1+ goals
80%
North Carolina Courage W 2+ goals
48%
North Carolina Courage W 3+ goals
22%
Angel City W 1+ goals
67%
Angel City W 2+ goals
30%
Angel City W 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

North Carolina Courage W (draw refunded)
66%
Angel City W (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

North Carolina Courage W at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.06 · 83 matches

Angel City W away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.42 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

North Carolina Courage W attack 1.82 + Angel City W defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.62

Angel City W attack 1.15 + North Carolina Courage W defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

North Carolina Courage W scores more
49%
level
25%
Angel City W scores more
26%

North Carolina Courage W at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "North Carolina Courage W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams scored in 7 of the last 9 meetings
  • North Carolina Courage W sit 14, Angel City W 1 in the table
  • Angel City W fall short of their xG (1.2 vs 1.6 expected)
  • North Carolina Courage W fall short of their xG (1.2 vs 1.6 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
North Carolina Courage W
Possession-dominant
Angel City W
Balanced
58%PossessionBiggest gap52%
83%Pass accuracy78%
11.4Shots11.1
1.64xG1.62
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
North Carolina Courage WAngel City W

Head-to-head

9 previous meetings

4
North Carolina Courage W
2
Draws
3
Angel City W
Avg goals: 2.3BTTS: 78%
2–12–12–11–11–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
W
LLWWW
W
WWWLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: North Carolina Courage W host Angel City W

August 27, 2026: North Carolina Courage W take on Angel City W in NWSL Women. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

North Carolina Courage W host Angel City W at WakeMed Soccer Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.