North Carolina Courage W 2–1 Angel City W

North Carolina Courage W

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Angel City W

B. A. Pinto 19'

M. Matsukubo 6'

S. Jonsdottir 88'

9/13/2025

NWSL Women · Round 20WakeMed Soccer Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

North Carolina Courage W43%

×Draw26%

Angel City W31%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

North Carolina Courage WExpected goals in this matchAngel City W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.15

North Carolina Courage W

1.42

Angel City W

1.15

North Carolina Courage W creates 23% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 25 away

1.48

creates per match

1.04

1.26

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

North Carolina Courage W

1.48

Angel City W

1.04

allows per match

North Carolina Courage W

1.26

Angel City W

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

North Carolina Courage W+0.00on par

Angel City W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

North Carolina Courage W ↓

Angel City W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

North Carolina Courage W or draw

69%

North Carolina Courage W or Angel City W

74%

Draw or Angel City W

57%

Winning margin

North Carolina Courage W wins by 2+

21%

Angel City W wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

North Carolina Courage W 1+ goals

76%

North Carolina Courage W 2+ goals

41%

North Carolina Courage W 3+ goals

17%

Angel City W 1+ goals

68%

Angel City W 2+ goals

32%

Angel City W 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

North Carolina Courage W (draw refunded)

59%

Angel City W (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

North Carolina Courage W at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.26 · 23 matches

Angel City W away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.36 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

North Carolina Courage W attack 1.48 + Angel City W defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.42

Angel City W attack 1.04 + North Carolina Courage W defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

North Carolina Courage W scores more

43%

level

26%

Angel City W scores more

31%

North Carolina Courage W at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "North Carolina Courage W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

K. Kurtz

North Carolina Courage W · D

7.3

Match Events

6'

M. Matsukubo↳ P. Linnehan

19'

B. A. Pinto

45+4'

Tyler Lussi

46'

M. Moriya← M. Vignola

46'

N. Martin← M. Hodge

46'

Maiara Niehues← M. Hammond

65'

C. Vine← B. A. Pinto

65'

Aline Gomes← P. Linnehan

67'

79'

82'

86'

88'

S. Jonsdottir↳ M. Moriya

90+2'

H. MacNab← M. Matsukubo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NorthAngel

Overview

52%Possession48%

10Total Shots7

2Corners3

14Fouls17

Shots

10Total Shots7

7On Target3

3Off Target2

0Blocked2

9Inside Box4

1Outside Box3

Passing

52%Possession48%

407Total Passes364

328Accurate Passes279

81%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

14Fouls17

2Yellow Cards0

1Offsides0