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North Carolina Courage W vs Angel City W — NWSL Women 2025

North Carolina Courage W
North Carolina Courage W
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Angel City W
Angel City W
O. Wingate 0 90+10'
C. Press 90+7'
10/12/2024NWSL WomenNWSL Women · Round 18WakeMed Soccer Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

North Carolina Courage W43%
×Draw26%
Angel City W31%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

North Carolina Courage W
1.42
Angel City W
1.15

North Carolina Courage W creates 23% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 25 away

creates per match

North Carolina Courage W
1.48
Angel City W
1.04

allows per match

North Carolina Courage W
1.26
Angel City W
1.36

finishing

North Carolina Courage W+0.00on par
Angel City W+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

North Carolina Courage W ↓

Angel City W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

North Carolina Courage W or draw
69%
North Carolina Courage W or Angel City W
74%
Draw or Angel City W
57%

Winning margin

North Carolina Courage W wins by 2+
21%
Angel City W wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

North Carolina Courage W 1+ goals
76%
North Carolina Courage W 2+ goals
41%
North Carolina Courage W 3+ goals
17%
Angel City W 1+ goals
68%
Angel City W 2+ goals
32%
Angel City W 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

North Carolina Courage W (draw refunded)
59%
Angel City W (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

North Carolina Courage W at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.26 · 23 matches

Angel City W away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.36 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

North Carolina Courage W attack 1.48 + Angel City W defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.42

Angel City W attack 1.04 + North Carolina Courage W defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

North Carolina Courage W scores more
43%
level
26%
Angel City W scores more
31%

North Carolina Courage W at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "North Carolina Courage W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4
K. ZelemAngel City WAngel City W · M
8.2

Match Events

33'
Madison Curry
46'
C. Vine← Aline Gomes
46'
J. Spencer← M. A. Vignola
63'
Kerolin← T. Lussi
65'
C. Press← M. Curry
66'
S. Leroux← M. Bright
77'
R. Rodríguez← C. Emslie
86'
E. Eddy← M. Dougherty Howard
89'
O. Wingate← A. Sanchez
89'
R. Jackson← N. Miura
90+2'
Sydney Leroux
90+7'
C. Press↳ K. Zelem
90+10'
O. Wingate 0↳ D. O'Sullivan

Possession

56%North

Shots

13North

Pass accuracy

53%North

Statistics

NorthAngel
Overview
56%Possession44%
13Total Shots7
4Corners1
6Fouls13
Shots
13Total Shots7
3On Target4
8Off Target2
2Blocked1
8Inside Box7
5Outside Box0
Passing
56%Possession44%
527Total Passes426
457Accurate Passes328
87%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
6Fouls13
0Yellow Cards2
1Offsides0

NWSL Women: North Carolina Courage W 1–1 Angel City W

North Carolina Courage W and Angel City W drew 1-1 in NWSL Women on October 12, 2024.

Goals: C. Press (90+7'), O. Wingate 0 (90+10').

North Carolina Courage W controlled possession (56%) and registered 13 shots to 7.

The match was played at WakeMed Soccer Park in Cary, North Carolina.