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North Alabama vs East Atlanta — USL League Two 2018

North Alabama
North Alabama
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
East Atlanta
East Atlanta
6/25/2023USL League TwoUSL League Two · Southern Conference - 12Sparkman High School Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

North Alabama18%
×Draw17%
East Atlanta65%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

North Alabama
1.38
East Atlanta
2.71

East Atlanta creates 96% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 39 away

creates per match

North Alabama
0.50
East Atlanta
1.26

allows per match

North Alabama
4.17
East Atlanta
2.26

finishing

North Alabama+0.00on par
East Atlanta+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

North Alabama ↓

East Atlanta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–26%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

North Alabama or draw
35%
North Alabama or East Atlanta
83%
Draw or East Atlanta
82%

Winning margin

North Alabama wins by 2+
7%
East Atlanta wins by 2+
44%

Team goals

North Alabama 1+ goals
75%
North Alabama 2+ goals
40%
North Alabama 3+ goals
16%
East Atlanta 1+ goals
93%
East Atlanta 2+ goals
75%
East Atlanta 3+ goals
50%

Draw no bet

North Alabama (draw refunded)
22%
East Atlanta (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

North Alabama at home — creates 0.50, concedes 4.17 · 6 matches

East Atlanta away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.26 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

North Alabama attack 0.50 + East Atlanta defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.38

East Atlanta attack 1.26 + North Alabama defence 4.17 → ÷2 → 2.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

North Alabama scores more
18%
level
17%
East Atlanta scores more
65%

East Atlanta at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "East Atlanta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: North Alabama 1–2 East Atlanta

East Atlanta beat North Alabama 2-1 in USL League Two on June 25, 2023.

The match was played at Sparkman High School Stadium in Harvest, Alabama.