East Atlanta 5–1 North Alabama: Result & Stats

East Atlanta

FT

5 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

North Alabama

6/10/2023

USL League Two · Southern Conference - 8RYSA Soccerplex Field 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

East Atlanta76%

×Draw14%

North Alabama11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

East AtlantaExpected goals in this matchNorth Alabama

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.11

1.13

East Atlanta

3.11

North Alabama

1.13

East Atlanta creates 175% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 6 away

1.39

creates per match

0.17

2.08

allows per match

4.83

creates per match

East Atlanta

1.39

North Alabama

0.17

allows per match

East Atlanta

2.08

North Alabama

4.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

East Atlanta+0.00on par

North Alabama+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

East Atlanta ↓

North Alabama →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–15%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–06%

4–17%

4–24%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

60%40%4.5

39%61%

Double chance

East Atlanta or draw

89%

East Atlanta or North Alabama

86%

Draw or North Alabama

24%

Winning margin

East Atlanta wins by 2+

56%

North Alabama wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

East Atlanta 1+ goals

95%

East Atlanta 2+ goals

81%

East Atlanta 3+ goals

58%

North Alabama 1+ goals

68%

North Alabama 2+ goals

31%

North Alabama 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

East Atlanta (draw refunded)

88%

North Alabama (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

East Atlanta at home — creates 1.39, concedes 2.08 · 38 matches

North Alabama away — creates 0.17, concedes 4.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

East Atlanta attack 1.39 + North Alabama defence 4.83 → ÷2 → 3.11

North Alabama attack 0.17 + East Atlanta defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

East Atlanta scores more

76%

level

14%

North Alabama scores more

11%

East Atlanta at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "East Atlanta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff