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North Alabama vs Dalton Red Wolves — USL League Two 2018

North Alabama
North Alabama
FT
0 – 6
HT: 0 – 2
Dalton Red Wolves
Dalton Red Wolves
6/22/2023USL League TwoUSL League Two · Southern Conference - 11Sparkman High School Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

North Alabama15%
×Draw16%
Dalton Red Wolves69%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

North Alabama
1.19
Dalton Red Wolves
2.73

Dalton Red Wolves creates 129% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 24 away

creates per match

North Alabama
0.50
Dalton Red Wolves
1.29

allows per match

North Alabama
4.17
Dalton Red Wolves
1.88

finishing

North Alabama+0.00on par
Dalton Red Wolves+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

North Alabama ↓

Dalton Red Wolves →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–28%
0–37%
0–45%
1
1–02%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–25%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

North Alabama or draw
31%
North Alabama or Dalton Red Wolves
84%
Draw or Dalton Red Wolves
85%

Winning margin

North Alabama wins by 2+
5%
Dalton Red Wolves wins by 2+
48%

Team goals

North Alabama 1+ goals
70%
North Alabama 2+ goals
33%
North Alabama 3+ goals
12%
Dalton Red Wolves 1+ goals
93%
Dalton Red Wolves 2+ goals
75%
Dalton Red Wolves 3+ goals
50%

Draw no bet

North Alabama (draw refunded)
17%
Dalton Red Wolves (draw refunded)
83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

North Alabama at home — creates 0.50, concedes 4.17 · 6 matches

Dalton Red Wolves away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.88 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

North Alabama attack 0.50 + Dalton Red Wolves defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.19

Dalton Red Wolves attack 1.29 + North Alabama defence 4.17 → ÷2 → 2.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

North Alabama scores more
15%
level
16%
Dalton Red Wolves scores more
69%

Dalton Red Wolves at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Dalton Red Wolves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: North Alabama vs Dalton Red Wolves

Dalton Red Wolves beat North Alabama 6-0 in USL League Two on June 22, 2023.

The match was played at Sparkman High School Stadium in Harvest, Alabama.