Dalton Red Wolves 1–0 North Alabama: Result & Stats

Dalton Red Wolves

FT

1 – 0

North Alabama

5/12/2023

USL League Two · Southern Conference - 1Lakeshore Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Dalton Red Wolves82%

×Draw11%

North Alabama7%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dalton Red WolvesExpected goals in this matchNorth Alabama

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.15

0.81

Dalton Red Wolves

3.15

North Alabama

0.81

Dalton Red Wolves creates 289% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 6 away

1.46

creates per match

0.17

1.46

allows per match

4.83

creates per match

Dalton Red Wolves

1.46

North Alabama

0.17

allows per match

Dalton Red Wolves

1.46

North Alabama

4.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dalton Red Wolves+0.00on par

North Alabama+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dalton Red Wolves ↓

North Alabama →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–15%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–08%

4–17%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Dalton Red Wolves or draw

93%

Dalton Red Wolves or North Alabama

89%

Draw or North Alabama

18%

Winning margin

Dalton Red Wolves wins by 2+

64%

North Alabama wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Dalton Red Wolves 1+ goals

96%

Dalton Red Wolves 2+ goals

81%

Dalton Red Wolves 3+ goals

59%

North Alabama 1+ goals

56%

North Alabama 2+ goals

19%

North Alabama 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Dalton Red Wolves (draw refunded)

93%

North Alabama (draw refunded)

7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dalton Red Wolves at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.46 · 24 matches

North Alabama away — creates 0.17, concedes 4.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dalton Red Wolves attack 1.46 + North Alabama defence 4.83 → ÷2 → 3.15

North Alabama attack 0.17 + Dalton Red Wolves defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Dalton Red Wolves scores more

82%

level

11%

North Alabama scores more

7%

Dalton Red Wolves at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Dalton Red Wolves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff