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North Alabama vs Asheville City — USL League Two 2018

North Alabama
North Alabama
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 3
Asheville City
Asheville City
5/31/2023USL League TwoUSL League Two · Southern Conference - 5Sparkman High School Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

North Alabama5%
×Draw10%
Asheville City84%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

North Alabama
0.72
Asheville City
3.19

Asheville City creates 343% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 42 away

creates per match

North Alabama
0.50
Asheville City
2.21

allows per match

North Alabama
4.17
Asheville City
0.95

finishing

North Alabama+0.00on par
Asheville City+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

North Alabama ↓

Asheville City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–17%
0–211%
0–311%
0–49%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–28%
1–38%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–23%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

North Alabama or draw
16%
North Alabama or Asheville City
90%
Draw or Asheville City
95%

Winning margin

North Alabama wins by 2+
1%
Asheville City wins by 2+
66%

Team goals

North Alabama 1+ goals
51%
North Alabama 2+ goals
16%
North Alabama 3+ goals
4%
Asheville City 1+ goals
96%
Asheville City 2+ goals
82%
Asheville City 3+ goals
60%

Draw no bet

North Alabama (draw refunded)
6%
Asheville City (draw refunded)
94%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

North Alabama at home — creates 0.50, concedes 4.17 · 6 matches

Asheville City away — creates 2.21, concedes 0.95 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

North Alabama attack 0.50 + Asheville City defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.72

Asheville City attack 2.21 + North Alabama defence 4.17 → ÷2 → 3.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

North Alabama scores more
5%
level
10%
Asheville City scores more
84%

Asheville City at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Asheville City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: North Alabama 0–5 Asheville City

Asheville City beat North Alabama 5-0 in USL League Two on May 31, 2023.

The match was played at Sparkman High School Stadium in Harvest, Alabama.