Asheville City 9–0 North Alabama: Result & Stats

Asheville City

FT

9 – 0

HT: 6 – 0

North Alabama

7/15/2023

USL League Two · Southern Conference - 19Greenwood Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Asheville City93%

×Draw6%

North Alabama2%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Asheville CityExpected goals in this matchNorth Alabama

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.70

0.39

Asheville City

3.70

North Alabama

0.39

Asheville City creates 849% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 6 away

2.57

creates per match

0.17

0.61

allows per match

4.83

creates per match

Asheville City

2.57

North Alabama

0.17

allows per match

Asheville City

0.61

North Alabama

4.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Asheville City+0.00on par

North Alabama+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No69
Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Asheville City ↓

North Alabama →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–11%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–13%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–15%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–015%

3–16%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–014%

4–16%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (15%) · grid covers 75% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Asheville City or draw

98%

Asheville City or North Alabama

94%

Draw or North Alabama

7%

Winning margin

Asheville City wins by 2+

80%

North Alabama wins by 2+

0%

Team goals

Asheville City 1+ goals

97%

Asheville City 2+ goals

87%

Asheville City 3+ goals

69%

North Alabama 1+ goals

32%

North Alabama 2+ goals

6%

North Alabama 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Asheville City (draw refunded)

98%

North Alabama (draw refunded)

2%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Asheville City at home — creates 2.57, concedes 0.61 · 46 matches

North Alabama away — creates 0.17, concedes 4.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Asheville City attack 2.57 + North Alabama defence 4.83 → ÷2 → 3.70

North Alabama attack 0.17 + Asheville City defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 93%?"

Asheville City scores more

93%

level

6%

North Alabama scores more

2%

Asheville City at 93% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 93% does not mean "Asheville City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff