Norrköping W 1–1 Vittsjö W: Result & Stats

Norrköping W

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Vittsjö W

W. Leidhammar 72'

I. Walta 42'

3/22/2025

Damallsvenskan · Round 1Platinumcars Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Norrköping W53%

×Draw24%

Vittsjö W23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Norrköping WExpected goals in this matchVittsjö W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

1.07

Norrköping W

1.76

Vittsjö W

1.07

Norrköping W creates 64% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

1.37

creates per match

0.70

1.44

allows per match

2.15

creates per match

Norrköping W

1.37

Vittsjö W

0.70

allows per match

Norrköping W

1.44

Vittsjö W

2.15

-0.57scores less than expected

finishing

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

Norrköping W-0.57scores less

Vittsjö W+0.13scores more

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norrköping W ↓

Vittsjö W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Norrköping W or draw

77%

Norrköping W or Vittsjö W

76%

Draw or Vittsjö W

47%

Winning margin

Norrköping W wins by 2+

30%

Vittsjö W wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Norrköping W 1+ goals

83%

Norrköping W 2+ goals

52%

Norrköping W 3+ goals

26%

Vittsjö W 1+ goals

66%

Vittsjö W 2+ goals

29%

Vittsjö W 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Norrköping W (draw refunded)

70%

Vittsjö W (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norrköping W at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.44 · 5 matches

Vittsjö W away — creates 0.70, concedes 2.15 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norrköping W attack 1.37 + Vittsjö W defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.76

Vittsjö W attack 0.70 + Norrköping W defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Norrköping W scores more

53%

level

24%

Vittsjö W scores more

23%

Norrköping W at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Norrköping W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

S. Madden

Vittsjö W · G

7.9

Match Events

39'

Ebba Handfast

42'

I. Walta↳ H. Ekengren

53'

S. Lynn← O. Wanglund

58'

S. Rehnberg← J. Conijnenberg

58'

A. Hellekant← D. Leskinen

66'

Amanda Altheden

72'

W. Leidhammar

78'

S. Rewucha← I. Walta

82'

F. Holmberg← S. Cary Angel

82'

V. Veber← F. Andersson

90+4'

Heidi Kollanen

90'

H. Kollanen← H. Sjodahl

90+1'

M. Larsson← H. Ekengren

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NorrköpingVittsjö

Overview

68%Possession32%

17Total Shots7

1.87Expected Goals (xG)0.32

9Corners4

8Fouls18

Shots

17Total Shots7

7On Target3

5Off Target2

5Blocked2

7Inside Box4

10Outside Box3

Passing

68%Possession32%

509Total Passes226

419Accurate Passes147

82%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

2Saves7

Discipline

8Fouls18

1Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

1Offsides1