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Norrköping W vs Vittsjö W — Damallsvenskan 2020

Norrköping W
Norrköping W
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Vittsjö W
Vittsjö W
D. Leskinen 55'
S. Lynn 20'
9/28/2024DamallsvenskanDamallsvenskan · Round 21PlatinumCars Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Norrköping W38%
×Draw27%
Vittsjö W35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Norrköping W
1.29
Vittsjö W
1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 80 away

creates per match

Norrköping W
1.07
Vittsjö W
1.26

allows per match

Norrköping W
1.22
Vittsjö W
1.50

finishing

Norrköping W+0.00on par
Vittsjö W+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norrköping W ↓

Vittsjö W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Norrköping W or draw
65%
Norrköping W or Vittsjö W
73%
Draw or Vittsjö W
62%

Winning margin

Norrköping W wins by 2+
17%
Vittsjö W wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Norrköping W 1+ goals
72%
Norrköping W 2+ goals
37%
Norrköping W 3+ goals
14%
Vittsjö W 1+ goals
71%
Vittsjö W 2+ goals
35%
Vittsjö W 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Norrköping W (draw refunded)
52%
Vittsjö W (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norrköping W at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.22 · 45 matches

Vittsjö W away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.50 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norrköping W attack 1.07 + Vittsjö W defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.29

Vittsjö W attack 1.26 + Norrköping W defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Norrköping W scores more
38%
level
27%
Vittsjö W scores more
35%

Norrköping W at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Norrköping W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
W. LeidhammarNorrköping WNorrköping W · F
8.0

Match Events

20'
S. Lynn
45'
Nellie Persson
55'
D. Leskinen
63'
F. Lindwall← S. Rehnberg
66'
Carrie Jones
72'
V. Veber← F. Andersson
72'
L. Sällström← H. Kollanen
73'
A. Hellekant← D. Leskinen
79'
M. Larsson← H. Ekengren
89'
S. Bárðardóttir← E. Rombing

Possession

57%Norrköping

Shots

14Norrköping

Pass accuracy

52%Norrköping

Statistics

NorrköpingVittsjö
Overview
57%Possession43%
14Total Shots8
0.75Expected Goals (xG)0.66
5Corners10
7Fouls8
Shots
14Total Shots8
4On Target2
4Off Target4
4Blocked2
7Inside Box4
7Outside Box4
Passing
57%Possession43%
496Total Passes360
394Accurate Passes259
79%Pass Accuracy72%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
7Fouls8
1Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0
1Offsides0

Match Recap: Norrköping W vs Vittsjö W

Norrköping W and Vittsjö W drew 1-1 in Damallsvenskan on September 28, 2024.

Goals: S. Lynn (20'), D. Leskinen (55').

Norrköping W controlled possession (57%) and registered 14 shots to 8.

The match was played at PlatinumCars Arena in Norrköping.