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Norrby IF vs Ostersunds FK — Superettan 2026

Norrby IF
Norrby IF
Preview
15:00
Ostersunds FK
Ostersunds FK
7/26/2026SuperettanSuperettan · Round 16
46%
Norrby IF
model favours
46%26%27%

Both teams score in 92% of Ostersunds FK’s matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
54%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Norrby IF46%
×Draw26%
Ostersunds FK27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Norrby IF
1.45
Ostersunds FK
1.05

Norrby IF creates 38% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 70 away

creates per match

Norrby IF
1.39
Ostersunds FK
0.89

allows per match

Norrby IF
1.21
Ostersunds FK
1.51

finishing

Norrby IF+0.00on par
Ostersunds FK+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norrby IF ↓

Ostersunds FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Norrby IF or draw
73%
Norrby IF or Ostersunds FK
74%
Draw or Ostersunds FK
54%

Winning margin

Norrby IF wins by 2+
23%
Ostersunds FK wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Norrby IF 1+ goals
77%
Norrby IF 2+ goals
42%
Norrby IF 3+ goals
18%
Ostersunds FK 1+ goals
65%
Ostersunds FK 2+ goals
28%
Ostersunds FK 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Norrby IF (draw refunded)
63%
Ostersunds FK (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norrby IF at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.21 · 71 matches

Ostersunds FK away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.51 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norrby IF attack 1.39 + Ostersunds FK defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.45

Ostersunds FK attack 0.89 + Norrby IF defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Norrby IF scores more
46%
level
26%
Ostersunds FK scores more
27%

Norrby IF at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Norrby IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Norrby IF score first in only 31% of matches
  • Both teams score in 77% of Norrby IF’s matches
  • Ostersunds FK score first in only 33% of matches
  • Norrby IF outscore their xG (1.2 vs 0.3 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Norrby IF
Balanced
Ostersunds FK
Balanced
46%Possession54%
70%Pass accuracy83%
10.4Shots10.8
0.33xGBiggest gap1.44
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Norrby IFOstersunds FK

Head-to-head

3 previous meetings

1
Norrby IF
1
Draws
1
Ostersunds FK
Avg goals: 1.7BTTS: 33%
1–10–12–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
IF
WLWDL
FK
WLWLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Norrby IF vs Ostersunds FK — Match Preview

Norrby IF face Ostersunds FK on July 26, 2026 in this Superettan fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.