Norrby IF 6–1 IFK Varnamo: Result & Stats

Norrby IF

FT

6 – 1

IFK Varnamo

3/7/2020

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Rydahallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Norrby IF54%

×Draw23%

IFK Varnamo23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Norrby IFExpected goals in this matchIFK Varnamo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.07

Norrby IF

1.79

IFK Varnamo

1.07

Norrby IF creates 67% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 8 away

2.20

creates per match

0.75

1.40

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Norrby IF

2.20

IFK Varnamo

0.75

allows per match

Norrby IF

1.40

IFK Varnamo

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Norrby IF+0.00on par

IFK Varnamo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norrby IF ↓

IFK Varnamo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Norrby IF or draw

77%

Norrby IF or IFK Varnamo

77%

Draw or IFK Varnamo

46%

Winning margin

Norrby IF wins by 2+

30%

IFK Varnamo wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Norrby IF 1+ goals

83%

Norrby IF 2+ goals

53%

Norrby IF 3+ goals

26%

IFK Varnamo 1+ goals

66%

IFK Varnamo 2+ goals

29%

IFK Varnamo 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Norrby IF (draw refunded)

71%

IFK Varnamo (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norrby IF at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

IFK Varnamo away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norrby IF attack 2.20 + IFK Varnamo defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.79

IFK Varnamo attack 0.75 + Norrby IF defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Norrby IF scores more

54%

level

23%

IFK Varnamo scores more

23%

Norrby IF at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Norrby IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff