IFK Varnamo 1–2 Norrby IF: Result & Stats

IFK Varnamo

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Norrby IF

O. Uddenäs 29'

V. Bergh 85'

D. Vukojevic 36'

11/27/2021

Superettan · Round 30Finnvedsvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

IFK Varnamo44%

×Draw26%

Norrby IF29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IFK VarnamoExpected goals in this matchNorrby IF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.12

IFK Varnamo

1.44

Norrby IF

1.12

IFK Varnamo creates 29% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 84 away

1.32

creates per match

1.12

1.11

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

IFK Varnamo

1.32

Norrby IF

1.12

allows per match

IFK Varnamo

1.11

Norrby IF

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

IFK Varnamo+0.00on par

Norrby IF+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Varnamo ↓

Norrby IF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

IFK Varnamo or draw

71%

IFK Varnamo or Norrby IF

74%

Draw or Norrby IF

56%

Winning margin

IFK Varnamo wins by 2+

21%

Norrby IF wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

IFK Varnamo 1+ goals

76%

IFK Varnamo 2+ goals

42%

IFK Varnamo 3+ goals

18%

Norrby IF 1+ goals

67%

Norrby IF 2+ goals

31%

Norrby IF 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

IFK Varnamo (draw refunded)

60%

Norrby IF (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Varnamo at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.11 · 37 matches

Norrby IF away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.56 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Varnamo attack 1.32 + Norrby IF defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.44

Norrby IF attack 1.12 + IFK Varnamo defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

IFK Varnamo scores more

44%

level

26%

Norrby IF scores more

29%

IFK Varnamo at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "IFK Varnamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

36'

64'

67'

70'

E. Becirovic← O. Johansson

70'

A. Magashy← O. Uddenäs

76'

W. Milovanovic← R. Strömberg

78'

J. Stevens← F. Wennegrund

78'

N. Tkalčić← J. Brannefalk

85'

V. Bergh

Possession

Shots

Statistics

IFKNorrby

Overview

57%Possession43%

8Total Shots12

1Corners11

12Fouls7

Shots

8Total Shots12

2On Target5

6Off Target7

Passing

57%Possession43%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls7

2Yellow Cards0

0Red Cards0

0Offsides1