Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Norrby IF vs Ariana — Ettan - Södra 2019

Norrby IF
Norrby IF
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Ariana
Ariana
11/11/2023Ettan - SödraEttan - Södra · Södra - 30Ramnavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Norrby IF55%
×Draw23%
Ariana22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Norrby IF
1.88
Ariana
1.12

Norrby IF creates 68% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 45 away

creates per match

Norrby IF
2.11
Ariana
1.11

allows per match

Norrby IF
1.13
Ariana
1.64

finishing

Norrby IF+0.00on par
Ariana+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norrby IF ↓

Ariana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Norrby IF or draw
78%
Norrby IF or Ariana
77%
Draw or Ariana
45%

Winning margin

Norrby IF wins by 2+
32%
Ariana wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Norrby IF 1+ goals
85%
Norrby IF 2+ goals
56%
Norrby IF 3+ goals
29%
Ariana 1+ goals
67%
Ariana 2+ goals
31%
Ariana 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Norrby IF (draw refunded)
71%
Ariana (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norrby IF at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.13 · 45 matches

Ariana away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.64 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norrby IF attack 2.11 + Ariana defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.88

Ariana attack 1.11 + Norrby IF defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Norrby IF scores more
55%
level
23%
Ariana scores more
22%

Norrby IF at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Norrby IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Norrby IF vs Ariana

Norrby IF beat Ariana 3-0 in Ettan - Södra on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Ramnavallen in Borås.