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Ariana vs Norrby IF — Ettan - Södra 2019

Ariana
Ariana
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Norrby IF
Norrby IF
10/6/2024Ettan - SödraEttan - Södra · Södra - 25Malmö Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Ariana41%
×Draw25%
Norrby IF34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ariana
1.54
Norrby IF
1.38

Ariana creates 12% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 45 away

creates per match

Ariana
1.80
Norrby IF
1.56

allows per match

Ariana
1.20
Norrby IF
1.27

finishing

Ariana+0.00on par
Norrby IF+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ariana ↓

Norrby IF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Ariana or draw
66%
Ariana or Norrby IF
75%
Draw or Norrby IF
59%

Winning margin

Ariana wins by 2+
20%
Norrby IF wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Ariana 1+ goals
79%
Ariana 2+ goals
45%
Ariana 3+ goals
20%
Norrby IF 1+ goals
75%
Norrby IF 2+ goals
40%
Norrby IF 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Ariana (draw refunded)
55%
Norrby IF (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ariana at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.20 · 45 matches

Norrby IF away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.27 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ariana attack 1.80 + Norrby IF defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.54

Norrby IF attack 1.56 + Ariana defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Ariana scores more
41%
level
25%
Norrby IF scores more
34%

Ariana at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Ariana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ariana vs Norrby IF

Ariana beat Norrby IF 2-1 in Ettan - Södra on October 6, 2024.

The match was played at Malmö Stadion in Malmö.