Normannia Gmünd 2–1 Leinfelden-Echterdingen

Normannia Gmünd

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Leinfelden-Echterdingen

9/14/2024

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 8Jahnstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Normannia Gmünd65%

×Draw19%

Leinfelden-Echterdingen16%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Normannia GmündExpected goals in this matchLeinfelden-Echterdingen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.35

1.10

Normannia Gmünd

2.35

Leinfelden-Echterdingen

1.10

Normannia Gmünd creates 114% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 17 away

1.82

creates per match

0.82

1.39

allows per match

2.88

creates per match

Normannia Gmünd

1.82

Leinfelden-Echterdingen

0.82

allows per match

Normannia Gmünd

1.39

Leinfelden-Echterdingen

2.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Normannia Gmünd+0.00on par

Leinfelden-Echterdingen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Normannia Gmünd ↓

Leinfelden-Echterdingen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Normannia Gmünd or draw

84%

Normannia Gmünd or Leinfelden-Echterdingen

81%

Draw or Leinfelden-Echterdingen

35%

Winning margin

Normannia Gmünd wins by 2+

42%

Leinfelden-Echterdingen wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Normannia Gmünd 1+ goals

90%

Normannia Gmünd 2+ goals

68%

Normannia Gmünd 3+ goals

41%

Leinfelden-Echterdingen 1+ goals

67%

Leinfelden-Echterdingen 2+ goals

30%

Leinfelden-Echterdingen 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Normannia Gmünd (draw refunded)

80%

Leinfelden-Echterdingen (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Normannia Gmünd at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.39 · 51 matches

Leinfelden-Echterdingen away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.88 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Normannia Gmünd attack 1.82 + Leinfelden-Echterdingen defence 2.88 → ÷2 → 2.35

Leinfelden-Echterdingen attack 0.82 + Normannia Gmünd defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Normannia Gmünd scores more

65%

level

19%

Leinfelden-Echterdingen scores more

16%

Normannia Gmünd at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Normannia Gmünd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff