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Leinfelden-Echterdingen vs Normannia Gmünd — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Leinfelden-Echterdingen
Leinfelden-Echterdingen
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Normannia Gmünd
Normannia Gmünd
3/30/2025Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 25Rasenplatz Sportpark Goldäcker

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Leinfelden-Echterdingen36%
×Draw23%
Normannia Gmünd40%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leinfelden-Echterdingen
1.57
Normannia Gmünd
1.67

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 51 away

creates per match

Leinfelden-Echterdingen
1.41
Normannia Gmünd
1.33

allows per match

Leinfelden-Echterdingen
2.00
Normannia Gmünd
1.73

finishing

Leinfelden-Echterdingen+0.00on par
Normannia Gmünd+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leinfelden-Echterdingen ↓

Normannia Gmünd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Leinfelden-Echterdingen or draw
60%
Leinfelden-Echterdingen or Normannia Gmünd
77%
Draw or Normannia Gmünd
64%

Winning margin

Leinfelden-Echterdingen wins by 2+
18%
Normannia Gmünd wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Leinfelden-Echterdingen 1+ goals
79%
Leinfelden-Echterdingen 2+ goals
46%
Leinfelden-Echterdingen 3+ goals
21%
Normannia Gmünd 1+ goals
81%
Normannia Gmünd 2+ goals
50%
Normannia Gmünd 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Leinfelden-Echterdingen (draw refunded)
47%
Normannia Gmünd (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leinfelden-Echterdingen at home — creates 1.41, concedes 2.00 · 17 matches

Normannia Gmünd away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.73 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leinfelden-Echterdingen attack 1.41 + Normannia Gmünd defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.57

Normannia Gmünd attack 1.33 + Leinfelden-Echterdingen defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Leinfelden-Echterdingen scores more
36%
level
23%
Normannia Gmünd scores more
40%

Normannia Gmünd at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Normannia Gmünd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg: Leinfelden-Echterdingen 1–2 Normannia Gmünd

Normannia Gmünd beat Leinfelden-Echterdingen 2-1 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on March 30, 2025.

The match was played at Rasenplatz Sportpark Goldäcker in Leinfelden-Echterdingen.