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Normannia Gmünd vs Backnang — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Normannia Gmünd
Normannia Gmünd
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Backnang
Backnang
A. Aschauer 18'
S. Gleissner 28'
G. Lekaj 4' (pen)
5/10/2025Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 31Jahnstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Normannia Gmünd46%
×Draw23%
Backnang32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Normannia Gmünd
1.82
Backnang
1.48

Normannia Gmünd creates 23% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 93 away

creates per match

Normannia Gmünd
1.82
Backnang
1.57

allows per match

Normannia Gmünd
1.39
Backnang
1.82

finishing

Normannia Gmünd+0.00on par
Backnang+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Normannia Gmünd ↓

Backnang →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Normannia Gmünd or draw
68%
Normannia Gmünd or Backnang
77%
Draw or Backnang
54%

Winning margin

Normannia Gmünd wins by 2+
25%
Backnang wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Normannia Gmünd 1+ goals
84%
Normannia Gmünd 2+ goals
54%
Normannia Gmünd 3+ goals
27%
Backnang 1+ goals
77%
Backnang 2+ goals
43%
Backnang 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Normannia Gmünd (draw refunded)
59%
Backnang (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Normannia Gmünd at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.39 · 51 matches

Backnang away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.82 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Normannia Gmünd attack 1.82 + Backnang defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.82

Backnang attack 1.57 + Normannia Gmünd defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Normannia Gmünd scores more
46%
level
23%
Backnang scores more
32%

Normannia Gmünd at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Normannia Gmünd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
G. LekajPenalty
18'
A. Aschauer
28'
S. Gleissner

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg: Normannia Gmünd 1–2 Backnang

Backnang beat Normannia Gmünd 2-1 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on May 10, 2025.

Goals: G. Lekaj (4' pen), A. Aschauer (18'), S. Gleissner (28').

The match was played at Jahnstadion in Schwäbisch Gmünd.