Backnang 1–2 Normannia Gmünd: Result & Stats

Backnang

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Normannia Gmünd

T. Doser 88'

H. Arslan 69'

A. Aschauer 45+1'

10/26/2024

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 14Etzwiesenstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Backnang44%

×Draw23%

Normannia Gmünd33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BacknangExpected goals in this matchNormannia Gmünd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.52

Backnang

1.79

Normannia Gmünd

1.52

Backnang creates 18% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 51 away

1.85

creates per match

1.33

1.71

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Backnang

1.85

Normannia Gmünd

1.33

allows per match

Backnang

1.71

Normannia Gmünd

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Backnang+0.00on par

Normannia Gmünd+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Backnang ↓

Normannia Gmünd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Backnang or draw

67%

Backnang or Normannia Gmünd

77%

Draw or Normannia Gmünd

56%

Winning margin

Backnang wins by 2+

24%

Normannia Gmünd wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Backnang 1+ goals

83%

Backnang 2+ goals

53%

Backnang 3+ goals

26%

Normannia Gmünd 1+ goals

78%

Normannia Gmünd 2+ goals

45%

Normannia Gmünd 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Backnang (draw refunded)

57%

Normannia Gmünd (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Backnang at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.71 · 93 matches

Normannia Gmünd away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.73 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Backnang attack 1.85 + Normannia Gmünd defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.79

Normannia Gmünd attack 1.33 + Backnang defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Backnang scores more

44%

level

23%

Normannia Gmünd scores more

33%

Backnang at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Backnang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+1'

A. Aschauer

69'

H. Arslan

88'

T. Doser

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff