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Nordstrand vs Åssiden IF — 3. Division - Girone 3 2020

Nordstrand
Nordstrand
FT
8 – 0
HT: 5 – 0
Åssiden IF
Åssiden IF
5/11/20243. Division - Girone 33. Division - Girone 3 · Group 3 - 6Nordstrand kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Nordstrand67%
×Draw16%
Åssiden IF16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nordstrand
2.96
Åssiden IF
1.44

Nordstrand creates 106% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 26 away

creates per match

Nordstrand
3.08
Åssiden IF
1.46

allows per match

Nordstrand
1.42
Åssiden IF
2.85

finishing

Nordstrand+0.00on par
Åssiden IF+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nordstrand ↓

Åssiden IF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–15%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Nordstrand or draw
84%
Nordstrand or Åssiden IF
84%
Draw or Åssiden IF
33%

Winning margin

Nordstrand wins by 2+
48%
Åssiden IF wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Nordstrand 1+ goals
95%
Nordstrand 2+ goals
79%
Nordstrand 3+ goals
55%
Åssiden IF 1+ goals
76%
Åssiden IF 2+ goals
42%
Åssiden IF 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Nordstrand (draw refunded)
80%
Åssiden IF (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nordstrand at home — creates 3.08, concedes 1.42 · 26 matches

Åssiden IF away — creates 1.46, concedes 2.85 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nordstrand attack 3.08 + Åssiden IF defence 2.85 → ÷2 → 2.96

Åssiden IF attack 1.46 + Nordstrand defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Nordstrand scores more
67%
level
16%
Åssiden IF scores more
16%

Nordstrand at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Nordstrand will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 3: Nordstrand 8–0 Åssiden IF

Nordstrand beat Åssiden IF 8-0 in 3. Division - Girone 3 on May 11, 2024.

The match was played at Nordstrand kunstgress in Oslo.