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Åssiden IF vs Nordstrand — 3. Division - Girone 3 2020

Åssiden IF
Åssiden IF
FT
1 – 6
HT: 1 – 1
Nordstrand
Nordstrand
8/17/20243. Division - Girone 33. Division - Girone 3 · Group 3 - 17Åssiden Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Åssiden IF29%
×Draw19%
Nordstrand51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Åssiden IF
1.86
Nordstrand
2.48

Nordstrand creates 33% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 26 away

creates per match

Åssiden IF
1.96
Nordstrand
2.42

allows per match

Åssiden IF
2.54
Nordstrand
1.77

finishing

Åssiden IF+0.00on par
Nordstrand+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Åssiden IF ↓

Nordstrand →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–14%
3–24%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Åssiden IF or draw
49%
Åssiden IF or Nordstrand
81%
Draw or Nordstrand
71%

Winning margin

Åssiden IF wins by 2+
15%
Nordstrand wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Åssiden IF 1+ goals
84%
Åssiden IF 2+ goals
55%
Åssiden IF 3+ goals
28%
Nordstrand 1+ goals
92%
Nordstrand 2+ goals
70%
Nordstrand 3+ goals
44%

Draw no bet

Åssiden IF (draw refunded)
36%
Nordstrand (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Åssiden IF at home — creates 1.96, concedes 2.54 · 26 matches

Nordstrand away — creates 2.42, concedes 1.77 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Åssiden IF attack 1.96 + Nordstrand defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.86

Nordstrand attack 2.42 + Åssiden IF defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 2.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Åssiden IF scores more
29%
level
19%
Nordstrand scores more
51%

Nordstrand at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Nordstrand will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Åssiden IF vs Nordstrand

Nordstrand beat Åssiden IF 6-1 in 3. Division - Girone 3 on August 17, 2024.

The match was played at Åssiden Stadion in Drammen.