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Nordlingen vs Ingolstadt II — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Nordlingen
Nordlingen
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Ingolstadt II
Ingolstadt II
Unknown 83', 20'
Unknown 59', 56', 13'
6/23/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Nordlingen21%
×Draw16%
Ingolstadt II63%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nordlingen
1.88
Ingolstadt II
3.25

Ingolstadt II creates 73% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Nordlingen
1.00
Ingolstadt II
1.50

allows per match

Nordlingen
5.00
Ingolstadt II
2.75

finishing

Nordlingen+0.00on par
Ingolstadt II+0.00on par

Total goals

88%Over
  • Over88
  • Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

81%Yes
  • Yes81
  • No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nordlingen ↓

Ingolstadt II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–26%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–24%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–22%
4–32%
4–42%

Most likely 1–3 (7%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
88%12%3.5
74%26%4.5
56%44%

Double chance

Nordlingen or draw
37%
Nordlingen or Ingolstadt II
84%
Draw or Ingolstadt II
79%

Winning margin

Nordlingen wins by 2+
10%
Ingolstadt II wins by 2+
44%

Team goals

Nordlingen 1+ goals
85%
Nordlingen 2+ goals
56%
Nordlingen 3+ goals
29%
Ingolstadt II 1+ goals
96%
Ingolstadt II 2+ goals
83%
Ingolstadt II 3+ goals
61%

Draw no bet

Nordlingen (draw refunded)
25%
Ingolstadt II (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
77%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nordlingen at home — creates 1.00, concedes 5.00 · 3 matches

Ingolstadt II away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nordlingen attack 1.00 + Ingolstadt II defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 1.88

Ingolstadt II attack 1.50 + Nordlingen defence 5.00 → ÷2 → 3.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Nordlingen scores more
21%
level
16%
Ingolstadt II scores more
63%

Ingolstadt II at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Ingolstadt II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'
20'
56'
59'
83'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nordlingen vs Ingolstadt II

Ingolstadt II beat Nordlingen 3-2 in Friendlies Clubs on June 23, 2024.

Goals: ? (13', 20', 56', 59', 83').