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Nordlingen vs Ingolstadt II — Oberliga - Bayern Süd 2026

Nordlingen
Nordlingen
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Ingolstadt II
Ingolstadt II
M. Meyer 65'
A. Schroter 39', 12'
J. Cabrera 41', 21'
11/12/2022Oberliga - Bayern SüdOberliga - Bayern Süd · Bayern Süd - 19Gerd-Müller-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Nordlingen37%
×Draw24%
Ingolstadt II39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nordlingen
1.51
Ingolstadt II
1.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 66 home / 17 away

creates per match

Nordlingen
1.73
Ingolstadt II
1.71

allows per match

Nordlingen
1.42
Ingolstadt II
1.29

finishing

Nordlingen+0.00on par
Ingolstadt II+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nordlingen ↓

Ingolstadt II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Nordlingen or draw
61%
Nordlingen or Ingolstadt II
76%
Draw or Ingolstadt II
63%

Winning margin

Nordlingen wins by 2+
18%
Ingolstadt II wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Nordlingen 1+ goals
78%
Nordlingen 2+ goals
44%
Nordlingen 3+ goals
19%
Ingolstadt II 1+ goals
79%
Ingolstadt II 2+ goals
46%
Ingolstadt II 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Nordlingen (draw refunded)
49%
Ingolstadt II (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nordlingen at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.42 · 66 matches

Ingolstadt II away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nordlingen attack 1.73 + Ingolstadt II defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.51

Ingolstadt II attack 1.71 + Nordlingen defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Nordlingen scores more
37%
level
24%
Ingolstadt II scores more
39%

Ingolstadt II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Ingolstadt II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'
A. Schroter
21'
J. Cabrera
39'
A. Schroter
41'
J. Cabrera
65'
M. Meyer

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nordlingen vs Ingolstadt II

Nordlingen beat Ingolstadt II 3-2 in Oberliga - Bayern Süd on November 12, 2022.

Goals: A. Schroter (12', 39'), J. Cabrera (21', 41'), M. Meyer (65').

The match was played at Gerd-Müller-Stadion in Nördlingen.