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Nordia Jerusalem vs Hakoah Ramat Gan — State Cup 2019

Nordia Jerusalem
Nordia Jerusalem
FT
4 – 2
Hakoah Ramat Gan
Hakoah Ramat Gan
9/6/2019State CupState Cup · 5th RoundTeddi Malcha Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Nordia Jerusalem66%
×Draw18%
Hakoah Ramat Gan16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nordia Jerusalem
2.40
Hakoah Ramat Gan
1.10

Nordia Jerusalem creates 118% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 4 away

creates per match

Nordia Jerusalem
2.30
Hakoah Ramat Gan
1.00

allows per match

Nordia Jerusalem
1.20
Hakoah Ramat Gan
2.50

finishing

Nordia Jerusalem+0.00on par
Hakoah Ramat Gan+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nordia Jerusalem ↓

Hakoah Ramat Gan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Nordia Jerusalem or draw
84%
Nordia Jerusalem or Hakoah Ramat Gan
82%
Draw or Hakoah Ramat Gan
34%

Winning margin

Nordia Jerusalem wins by 2+
43%
Hakoah Ramat Gan wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Nordia Jerusalem 1+ goals
91%
Nordia Jerusalem 2+ goals
69%
Nordia Jerusalem 3+ goals
42%
Hakoah Ramat Gan 1+ goals
67%
Hakoah Ramat Gan 2+ goals
30%
Hakoah Ramat Gan 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Nordia Jerusalem (draw refunded)
80%
Hakoah Ramat Gan (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nordia Jerusalem at home — creates 2.30, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

Hakoah Ramat Gan away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nordia Jerusalem attack 2.30 + Hakoah Ramat Gan defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.40

Hakoah Ramat Gan attack 1.00 + Nordia Jerusalem defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Nordia Jerusalem scores more
66%
level
18%
Hakoah Ramat Gan scores more
16%

Nordia Jerusalem at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Nordia Jerusalem will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

State Cup: Nordia Jerusalem 4–2 Hakoah Ramat Gan

Nordia Jerusalem beat Hakoah Ramat Gan 4-2 in State Cup on September 6, 2019.

The match was played at Teddi Malcha Stadium in Jerusalem.