Hakoah Ramat Gan 1–0 Nordia Jerusalem

Hakoah Ramat Gan

FT

1 – 0

Nordia Jerusalem

1/10/2020

League #496 · South - 15

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Hakoah Ramat Gan48%

×Draw29%

Nordia Jerusalem23%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hakoah Ramat GanExpected goals in this matchNordia Jerusalem

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.79

Hakoah Ramat Gan

1.29

Nordia Jerusalem

0.79

Hakoah Ramat Gan creates 63% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

1.25

creates per match

0.83

0.75

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Hakoah Ramat Gan

1.25

Nordia Jerusalem

0.83

allows per match

Hakoah Ramat Gan

0.75

Nordia Jerusalem

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hakoah Ramat Gan+0.00on par

Nordia Jerusalem+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hakoah Ramat Gan ↓

Nordia Jerusalem →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Hakoah Ramat Gan or draw

77%

Hakoah Ramat Gan or Nordia Jerusalem

71%

Draw or Nordia Jerusalem

52%

Winning margin

Hakoah Ramat Gan wins by 2+

22%

Nordia Jerusalem wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Hakoah Ramat Gan 1+ goals

72%

Hakoah Ramat Gan 2+ goals

37%

Hakoah Ramat Gan 3+ goals

14%

Nordia Jerusalem 1+ goals

55%

Nordia Jerusalem 2+ goals

19%

Nordia Jerusalem 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Hakoah Ramat Gan (draw refunded)

68%

Nordia Jerusalem (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hakoah Ramat Gan at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Nordia Jerusalem away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hakoah Ramat Gan attack 1.25 + Nordia Jerusalem defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.29

Nordia Jerusalem attack 0.83 + Hakoah Ramat Gan defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Hakoah Ramat Gan scores more

48%

level

29%

Nordia Jerusalem scores more

23%

Hakoah Ramat Gan at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Hakoah Ramat Gan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff