Norden 1–0 Lorentzweiler: Result & Stats | Cup

Norden

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Lorentzweiler

10/29/2023

Cup · Round of 32Stade Auf Dem Kiemel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Norden18%

×Draw18%

Lorentzweiler64%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NordenExpected goals in this matchLorentzweiler

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

2.48

Norden

1.25

Lorentzweiler

2.48

Lorentzweiler creates 98% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

1.50

creates per match

2.80

2.17

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Norden

1.50

Lorentzweiler

2.80

allows per match

Norden

2.17

Lorentzweiler

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Norden+0.00on par

Lorentzweiler+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norden ↓

Lorentzweiler →

0–02%

0–16%

0–27%

0–36%

0–44%

1–03%

1–18%

1–29%

1–38%

1–45%

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Norden or draw

36%

Norden or Lorentzweiler

82%

Draw or Lorentzweiler

82%

Winning margin

Norden wins by 2+

Lorentzweiler wins by 2+

42%

Team goals

Norden 1+ goals

71%

Norden 2+ goals

36%

Norden 3+ goals

13%

Lorentzweiler 1+ goals

92%

Lorentzweiler 2+ goals

70%

Lorentzweiler 3+ goals

44%

Draw no bet

Norden (draw refunded)

22%

Lorentzweiler (draw refunded)

78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Norden at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

Lorentzweiler away — creates 2.80, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Norden attack 1.50 + Lorentzweiler defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Lorentzweiler attack 2.80 + Norden defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 64%?"

Norden scores more

18%

level

18%

Lorentzweiler scores more

64%

Lorentzweiler at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Lorentzweiler will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff