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Lorentzweiler vs Norden — Cup 2020

Lorentzweiler
Lorentzweiler
FT
4 – 2
Norden
Norden
9/12/2021CupCup · 1st RoundTerrain rue de Hunsdorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Lorentzweiler31%
×Draw20%
Norden49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lorentzweiler
1.83
Norden
2.33

Norden creates 27% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

creates per match

Lorentzweiler
1.33
Norden
1.67

allows per match

Lorentzweiler
3.00
Norden
2.33

finishing

Lorentzweiler+0.00on par
Norden+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lorentzweiler ↓

Norden →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Lorentzweiler or draw
51%
Lorentzweiler or Norden
80%
Draw or Norden
69%

Winning margin

Lorentzweiler wins by 2+
15%
Norden wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Lorentzweiler 1+ goals
84%
Lorentzweiler 2+ goals
54%
Lorentzweiler 3+ goals
28%
Norden 1+ goals
90%
Norden 2+ goals
67%
Norden 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Lorentzweiler (draw refunded)
39%
Norden (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lorentzweiler at home — creates 1.33, concedes 3.00 · 6 matches

Norden away — creates 1.67, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lorentzweiler attack 1.33 + Norden defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.83

Norden attack 1.67 + Lorentzweiler defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Lorentzweiler scores more
31%
level
20%
Norden scores more
49%

Norden at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Norden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lorentzweiler vs Norden

Lorentzweiler beat Norden 4-2 in Cup on September 12, 2021.

The match was played at Terrain rue de Hunsdorf in Lorentzweiler.