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Noravank vs Lernayin Artsakh — First League 2019

Noravank
Noravank
CANC
08:00
Lernayin Artsakh
Lernayin Artsakh
4/25/2021First LeagueFirst League · Round 25Charentsavan City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Noravank45%
×Draw24%
Lernayin Artsakh31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Noravank
1.62
Lernayin Artsakh
1.30

Noravank creates 25% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 81 away

creates per match

Noravank
1.64
Lernayin Artsakh
1.74

allows per match

Noravank
0.86
Lernayin Artsakh
1.60

finishing

Noravank+0.00on par
Lernayin Artsakh+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Noravank ↓

Lernayin Artsakh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Noravank or draw
69%
Noravank or Lernayin Artsakh
76%
Draw or Lernayin Artsakh
55%

Winning margin

Noravank wins by 2+
23%
Lernayin Artsakh wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Noravank 1+ goals
80%
Noravank 2+ goals
48%
Noravank 3+ goals
22%
Lernayin Artsakh 1+ goals
73%
Lernayin Artsakh 2+ goals
37%
Lernayin Artsakh 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Noravank (draw refunded)
59%
Lernayin Artsakh (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Noravank at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.86 · 14 matches

Lernayin Artsakh away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.60 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Noravank attack 1.64 + Lernayin Artsakh defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.62

Lernayin Artsakh attack 1.74 + Noravank defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Noravank scores more
45%
level
24%
Lernayin Artsakh scores more
31%

Noravank at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Noravank will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Noravank host Lernayin Artsakh

April 25, 2021: Noravank take on Lernayin Artsakh in First League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Noravank host Lernayin Artsakh at Charentsavan City Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.